quinta-feira, 31 de julho de 2014

Fundos Abutres

Meios financeiros internacionais consideram a Argentina em default por não ter pago  dentro do prazo montantes devidos aos fundos abutres. A Argentina afirma que os referidos  fundos fazem exigências que tem de ser negociadas e a Presidente Cristina  compara com a situação em Gaza: "são misseis financeiros que matam pessoas". O  assunto é  agravado pela sentença de tribunal norte-americano que impede pagamento a outros credores com quem a Argentina chegou a  acordo, sem antes pagar aos abutres. O mediador nomeado pelo juiz norte-americano publicou um comunicado que o incompatibilizou com o ministro argentino da Economia. Apesar disso, fala-se em novas negociações. Entretanto, o dolar disparou em alta com relação ao peso no mercado informal e as trocas comerciais da Argentina com os parceiros do Mercosul assinalam baixa.
Empresa de comunicação ligado ao governo  argentino publicou este poster;

domingo, 27 de julho de 2014

domingo de chuva

Daqui a pouco vou dormir. Com o mau tempo mal sai de casa. Fiz umas compras e voltei. Preparei uns textos curtos, tentei resolver   assuntos pelo telefone (em vão), avancei nas grandes arrumações iniciadas ontem e assisti finalmente a uma vitória do Flamengo (1 a 0 contra o Botafogo). 
Ultima semana de férias e estou com saudades das  aulas.

quinta-feira, 24 de julho de 2014

IDH 2014

Publicado o Relatório do PNUD sobre Desenvolvimento Humano e respectiva classificação internacional. Apesar dos indicadores utilizados serem insuficientes para dar uma imagem precisa e de alguns dados fornecidos por certos países serem adulterados, o IDH permanece um instrumento importante de avaliação e comparação.
5 países melhor colocados: Noruega, Australia, Suiça, Holanda, Estados Unidos  (todos IDH muito alto)
5 países pior colocados: Serra Leoa, Chade, Republica Centrafricana, RD Congo e Niger (todos IDH baixo)
Melhores latino-americanos: Chile e Argentina (ambos IDH muito alto)
Melhores africanos: Libia e Mauricio (ambos IDH alto)
Países de língua nacional ou oficial portuguesa: Portugal (41°, muito alto); Brasil (79°, alto); Cabo Verde 123,° médio), Timor-Leste (128,° médio) São Tomé e Principe (142°, médio), Angola (149°, baixo), Guiné-Bissau (177°, baixo) Moçambique (178°, baixo).
Um numero crescente de economistas, sociologos e membros de ONG's assinalam a necessidade de incluir no IDH, a segurança da população e as liberdades publicas.

segunda-feira, 21 de julho de 2014

artigo sobre as classes médias africanas

New York Times
Africans Open Fuller Wallets to the Future

JOHANNESBURG — Across sub-Saharan Africa, consumer demand is fueling the continent’s economies in new ways, driving hopes that Africa will emerge as a success story in the coming years comparable to the rise of the East Asian Tigers in the second half of the 20th century.

After seeing years of uninterrupted economic expansion across Africa, governments, analysts and investors are focusing on this fast-growing continent’s shoppers and workers rather than just the usual upswing in commodity prices that have driven past cycles of boom and bust.

The African Development Bank projected in its latest annual report in May that foreign investment in Africa would reach a record $80 billion this year, with a larger share of the money going to manufacturing and not just the strip-mining of resources.

“The development is real, and on the back of that, there’s a lot of commercial opportunity that’s emerging,” said Simon Freemantle, senior political economist at Standard Bank here.

At times messy and difficult to quantify, Africa’s economies give pessimists and optimists plenty of statistical ammunition to support their narratives of the future. Growth is uneven. Inequality is rising in many corners. Millions of people still live in extreme poverty. With violence simmering in the Central African Republic, South Sudan and elsewhere, it’s easy to fall back on the old pessimistic plotline for sub-Saharan Africa

The middle class has expanded rapidly across the continent, but the population has grown so quickly that the absolute number of impoverished Africans has gone up at the same time. Sushi restaurants in Dakar, Senegal, and fancy coffee shops in Kigali, Rwanda, do not improve the lives of subsistence farmers in the hinterland.

Yet a sign of confidence is the success with which African countries have been able to tap international capital markets of late. In spite of recent terrorist attacks, Kenya sold $2 billion worth of bonds to international investors last month, which will be used in part to pay for infrastructure projects; two months earlier, it was Zambia with a $1 billion offer.

Exports from sub-Saharan Africa leapt from $68 billion to more than $400 billion from 1995 to 2012. A total of $300 billion of that came from natural resources, the extraction of oil, natural gas, precious metals and diamonds. Angola pumps 1.8 million barrels of oil a day which is why its capital, Luanda, hosts fancy designer boutiques.

But some of the most rapid growth is now coming from other sectors. In South Africa, for example, the broader economy has been sluggish, but the black middle class now spends more money than the white middle class.

For decades, this country’s long-neglected black consumers spent their money on the far edges of the economy, buying necessities like soap, salt and milk at informal convenience stores called spaza shops. During the hard years of apartheid, Itumeleng Mothibeli’s grandparents ran one such shop in a township, the peri-urban communities to which blacks had been exiled under the racista system.

Now Mr. Mothibeli manages 14 shopping centers spread across four provinces of South Africa for the Vukile Property Fund. The company targets the long-shunned township market for its high volume, turnover and foot traffic. Instead of the one-story brick stand adjacent to his grandparents’ house, these are enormous Western-style shopping malls that are doing brisk business.

“In the old days, you had cathedrals in the middle of towns,” said Mr. Mothibeli, 30, as he drove a gold Toyota Corolla company car into the parking lot of the Daveyton mall. “Now you have shopping centers.”

The African Development Bank gave the so-called Africa Rising debate a significant jolt in 2011 with a report declaring that the African middle class had grown to 350 million people in 2010 from 126 million in 1980. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development put the figure in 2010 at a mere 32 million, “or roughly the same as Canada.”

Middle class is a fraught, even political, expression. In the United States, it conjures the image of a suburban house with a white picket fence and a car in the garage. The African Development Bank, on the other hand, defines someone as middle class if he earns $2 a day or more.

“The future is about that lower middle class that’s expanding quickly,” said Staffan Canback, managing director of the consultancy Canback & Company, who has done business in Africa for decades. He was talking about the people with enough money left over for small packets of detergent or who can save money for name-brand shoes.

“You’re starting to see a middle class even in a place like Angola,” Mr. Canback said. “There’s a long way to go, but I think it’s incorrect to say that it’s only a few families that make all the money and no one else makes money. That’s definitely not true.”

Businesses alert to the opportunities are setting up shop in Africa.

In April, Marriott closed a deal to buy the 116-hotel Protea Hospitality Group, based in South Africa. Clothing companies like Forever 21 and Sweden’s H&M plan to open their first shops here as well. Wal-Mart’s South African arm, Massmart, has stores in a dozen African countries, including Uganda and Mozambique, and plans to expand into Angola next year.

Last year, Honda opened its third motorcycle subsidiary in Africa, based in Kenya, including a new assembly plant. Heineken plans to invest nearly $700 million a year in Africa to keep up with the demand of the continent’s beer drinkers. The Chinese shoemaker Huajian is spearheading the construction of a $2 billion special economic zone in Ethiopia that will focus on light manufacturing.

Perhaps no country illustrates the pitfalls and opportunities quite as starkly as Nigeria. Even as the country is projected to grow at a swift 7.3 percent clip this year and next, the kidnapping and murdering by Boko Haram militants, who operate with impunity in Nigeria’s northeast, transfix the world.

Adewale Opawale, executive director at Strategic Research and Management (Stream) Insight, a market and social research company in Lagos, said he had witnessed drastic change not just in the number of cars on the streets and airplanes taking off from the international airport there, but in the way that people do business.

Consumers are moving from running around with cash for purchases to using their Internet-enabled cellphones (many with more than one phone) to place orders from online retail chains that have started to cash in on the country’s rising middle class.

“It’s loads of opportunity in the Nigerian consumer market,” he said. “Nigeria is on track to become one of the 20 largest economies in the world.”

The commercial gains are not spread equally across society or across the continent. A study of the top African brands found that of the top 25, all but one — Kenya’s Safaricom — came from Nigeria or South Africa. Seven of the top 10 brands were South African. How the spoils of growth are shared is as important as the national averages that mask deep inequality. The goal is a broad-based improvement in the lives of the masses, which has proved elusive.“The question of how the poor fared in the period of rapid growth in the last decade in Africa is a subject of controversy,” said Mthuli Ncube, chief economist at the African Development Bank. “The precise relationship between poverty and growth in the long term depends crucially on a growth pattern that is accompanied by structural shifts where labor moves from a low productivity to high-productivity sectors.”

That means more good jobs in manufacturing and services and fewer subsistence farmers. But that has been a goal for leaders across Africa since the dawn of the postcolonial period.

Whether the continent’s governments are up to the task, there is no question that the individual, entrepreneurial drive is present and pushing Africa ahead.

“There’s just this amazing determination to get places,” said John Simpson, director of the Unilever Institute of Strategic Marketing at the University of Cape Town.

“It’s a relentless desire to make more, to get better, to have a better lifestyle.”

sábado, 19 de julho de 2014

Arriscar Tudo

Helly Luv, cantora do Curdistão iraquiano, ameaçada pelos islamistas extremistas em virtude de seu clip "Risk It all" (Arrisca Tudo), diz não ter medo e vai seguir na vida conforme o título da musica (2,9 milhões de visualizações no You Tube até aqui). Mistura de rock com ritmo curdo, roupas inaceitáveis para os fundamentalistas e exibição de simbolos nacionais curdos, estão na base das  ameaças. Reproduzo a musica tal como está no You Tube.   

Helly com uma unidade curda de combate

Ubaldo foi embora

Decorre no mausoléu da Academia Brasileira de Letras, cemitério de São João Batista, o funeral de João Ubaldo Ribeiro, autor de "Viva o Povo Brasileiro", "Sargento Getúlio", "A Casa dos Budas Ditosos", etc. Ficou inacabado um romance que escrevia há algum tempo. Faleceu ontem de embolia pulmonar, aos 73 anos. Um dos maiores escritores brasileiros de sempre.

sexta-feira, 18 de julho de 2014

próximo Conlab

Prorrogado até 18 de agosto o prazo para envio de resumos sobre comunicações ao XII Congresso Luso Afro Brasileiro de Ciências Sociais que se realizará em Lisboa, de 1 a 5 de fevereiro de 2015. Informações sobre os eixos temáticos e os grupos de trabalho no site www.ailpcsh.org

quinta-feira, 17 de julho de 2014

um dia de cão

Avião da Malaysian derrubado por missil nos céus da Ucrânia, perto da fronteira russa e se há envolvimento russo, direto ou indireto, a sua posição no conflito ucranianao vai ficar seriamente abalada, pelo menos a nivel da opinião publica mundial.
Israel ataca  a faixa de Gaza por terra mar e ar. Vai fazer limpeza de muitas rampas de lançamento de misseis e roquetes, vai destruir alguns tuneis, mas rapidamente o Hamas refará sua capacidade em material. É um ciclo que se repete e cujo fim ninguém vê.
No Brasil, a economia encolhe 0,18% em  maio, apenas cresce 0,38% em relação a maio de 2013 e a criação de empregos é a pior para um mês de junho desde 1998.

terça-feira, 15 de julho de 2014

A derrota no contexto

Reproduzo opinião de Elio Gasperi no New York Times de hoje:

The Opinion Pages | Op-Ed Contributor 

                                             Brazil’s Dance With Defeat

JULY 14, 2014

SÃO PAULO, Brazil — Last week, with great solemnity, Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that “being able to overcome defeat I think is the feature and hallmark of a major national team and of a great country.”
So what happened to Brazil that was so dreadful? Was it something similar to the 1940 defeat that drove Charles de Gaulle to call for French resistance? Thankfully, it was nothing of the sort. It was just a soccer game — a national nightmare, during which Germany scored seven goals, four of them in under six minutes. Fortunate is a people that is capable of such commotion over a simple soccer match.

Since its independence, the nation of Brazil has suffered only two terrible defeats — both on home turf, in soccer. Headed for a draw with Uruguay in the 1950 World Cup final, the Brazilian team left itself open to a goal that silenced the country.
Six decades later, it was expected that Brazil, as the host nation, would finally vindicate itself in the eyes of the world. Last week’s loss to Germany, which went on to defeat Argentina and win the championship, was arguably worse than 1950. Goals ceased to be surprising; they took on a humiliating regularity. The word “humiliation,” recalled during the game and repeated throughout the world, informed Ms. Rousseff’s conversation with CNN. It would never occur to a Brazilian to emotionally distance herself from what had happened to the national team’s players. It’s basically a question of patriotism.
It may seem naïve to argue that the soul of a country can be deeply entwined with the result of a sporting event. Maybe so, but Americans still take pride in Jesse Owens’s victories at the 1936 Berlin Olympics under Hitler’s nose and Joe Louis’s knockout of the German boxer Max Schmeling during the height of Nazism. And in terms of cultural competition, Americans felt a sense of triumph when the pianist Van Cliburn won the International Tchaikovsky Competition in Moscow in 1958 just months after the Soviet Union had shocked and shamed the United States by putting the Sputnik satellite into orbit.

Many nations identify with sporting victories but seek military successes above all. Sometimes this is for the good of humanity, like the allied efforts in World War II. Sometimes it is a terrible waste, like French and American actions in Vietnam. No nation likes to talk about its military failures. Americans don’t like to remember that in 1814 the British torched the White House.
Brazilian national humiliations tend to occur within the four corners of the soccer field. Perhaps we can chalk this up to geography — after all, Brazil is far from that cauldron of trouble called Europe. Or perhaps it’s luck. Since the end of the 19th century, no Brazilian soldier has died in a war that expanded the nation’s borders. Nine generals have governed Brazil. Six of them never fought a war. It’s better that way.
Before the World Cup began, opponents of the government bet on the event’s infrastructural weakness. Later, the government got drunk on the fleeting success of the team, despite having little to do with it.

Today it’s generally believed that the “7-1” debacle (and a 3-0 drubbing by the Netherlands in the third-place match) will influence the results of the presidential election in October. Behind this conviction lies a certain skepticism toward the universal right to vote, or worse, a disbelief in Brazilians’ capacity to intelligently exercise it.
Brazilian governments that have seen World Cup defeats have won elections. And others have lost elections despite World Cup victories. Add it up, and you’ve got nothing. Soccer depends on a ball in a goal. Elections, a ballot in the box. One requires the prevalent use of one’s feet; the other, one’s head.
The World Cup has been awarded, but Brazil’s problems will remain just as they’ve always been. Ms. Rousseff will seek re-election amid dismal economic indicators: too little growth (1.4 percent in 2014), too much inflation (6.4 percent according to forecasts by the central bank). And, above all, she will rely on a religious faith in marketing.

Her victory would increase the Workers’ Party’s run in government to 16 years. Never before in the history of Brazil has a political party with this degree of cohesion held on for so long in government.
The two candidates running against Ms. Rousseff have not yet made their campaign platforms clear. If they are thinking about education, health care or transportation, her adversaries Aécio Neves and Eduardo Campos haven’t said so — despite the fact that tens of thousands of Brazilians took to the streets one year ago to demand better services in precisely these three areas. As with the failed national team, the opposition is running a hollow campaign.
If the soccer team’s performance teaches us anything, it’s to remember the familiar aphorism: You can’t win before the game is played.

Elio Gaspari, a columnist for the Brazilian newspapers O Globo and Folha de São Paulo, is the author of a multivolume history of Brazil’s military dictatorship. This essay was translated by Alexandra Joy Forman from the Portuguese

sexta-feira, 11 de julho de 2014

Novo Livro

Adolfo Maria, amigo de  décadas, de grandes papos, debates e combates, acaba de publicar este romance:

Auto retrato

Todos estamos lembrados de ver em algum momento auto retratos de  pintores antigos. Com a  evolução da fotografia vimos tambem alguns auto retratos de fotografos com a maquina na mão em frente a espelhos. Com as câmeras nos celulares tivemos duas fases: a da auto foto sem ver o objetivo, tentando acertar e a fase atual em que é possível ver-se e clicar. Há dias li uma noticia de alguém que diariamente grava uma imagem de si próprio. Ao fim de alguns  anos vai ver a inevitável evolução.
Por vezes também uso o iphone para fotografar, mas em geral apago. Desta vez guardei para verem que não perdi o humor com  a derrota do Brasil por 7 a 1 e  não posso deixar de sorrir quando escuto explicações hiper esfarrapadas sobre o acontecido.

terça-feira, 8 de julho de 2014

a grande humilhação

A derrota do Brasil frente à Alemanha por 7 a 1 é a maior de toda a história do futebol brasileiro e a primeira vez que  uma seleção é esmagada a esse ponto perto da final. Os supersticiosos dizem que foi fatalidade, um dos colunistas da UOL prefere não criticar demais para não dar a impressão de "chutar cachorro morto" e os alemães dizem que lamentam. O Kroos disse que até tinha pena  do Brasil.
Impensável mas real. Inaceitável que uma seleção que defende o prestigio do Brasil tenha tido um apagão daqueles. Se foi isso que  aconteceu - apagão.
Agora conto com a Argentina para honrar o futebol sul-americano e  estabelecer mais equilibrio no futebol mundial.

sábado, 5 de julho de 2014

Uma agressão de efeitos imprevisiveis

O Brasil venceu a Colômbia mas teve um ferido grave: Neymar. O árbitro olhou, viu o Zuñiga atacar de joelhada a coluna do Neymar e não fez nada. Já na  partida contra o Chile ele tinha sido alvo de autentica caçada e o jogo foi decidido nos penaltis. Apesar de tudo isso alguns mentecaptos dizem que as  arbitragens favorecem o Brasil
Na semi final vai ser preciso muito espirito coletivo e uma boa  alternativa para o lugar  do numero 10
De longe pelo twitter Rihana torceu pelo Brasil

quarta-feira, 2 de julho de 2014

Como o dólar se articula com a diplomacia

O banco francês BNP Parisbas foi multado nos USA em  9 bi de USD por ter violado regras de embargo dos Estados Unidos em relação  a alguns países. Reproduzo um   artigo do "New York Times" de ontem, explicando  como a força da moeda norte-americana ajuda a politica internacional de Washington.

In BNP Paribas Case, an Example of How Mighty the Dollar Is
JULY 1, 2014 
 Neil Irwin - New York Times

Even if you are a bank as gigantic as BNP Paribas, $9 billion is a lot of money. Shareholders of the French bank know that all too well, as that is what they are paying in penalties to the United States for a conspiracy to allow money transfers to Sudan and other blacklisted nations.
The case is remarkable for the size of the penalty, which is a bit more than the bank’s total earnings for 2013. But it may be more interesting for the lesson it teaches about how the United States’ financial power goes hand in hand with its role in foreign affairs.
In short: The dollar is the global reserve currency, the bedrock of the world financial system. And that role gives the United States surprising power over what happens in the world even in spheres that would have little to do with finance.
In the case of BNP Paribas, a French bank was accused of (and has now admitted) facilitating transactions with Sudan, Iran and Cuba. These were engineered out of its Geneva office, which covered up transactions with Sudan.
Yet it is now facing a huge penalty and the forced resignations of 13 executives, who may be banned from the banking industry, because of actions taken by the Justice Department, the Federal Reserve and the New York State financial regulator. In other words, a French bank must comply with United States foreign policy, which set economic sanctions on those nations, or it will pay a very high price.
And for BNP Paribas, or really any bank of any size around the world, there is no choice but to comply. The dollar is by a wide margin the most widely used currency for international trade and for foreign governments, wealthy individuals or corporations looking to park cash.
If you are a bank in Paris or Jakarta or São Paulo, you can’t really serve your clients unless you are able to connect them to the global market for dollars. And you can’t do that unless you are in good standing with United States regulators. And you will very much not be in good standing with them if there is evidence you facilitated financing of terrorism or governments that the United States considers global threats.
That’s one of the important reasons that United States-led economic sanctions against Sudan or Iran carry weight. Those countries cannot easily gain access to the global financial system by going to a bank in a more sympathetic country.
Not surprisingly, this state of affairs does not always go over well overseas. The United States can seem heavy-handed, using its power in the financial sphere as a tool of foreign policy. President François Hollande of France reportedly gave President Obama an earful about the looming BNP Paribas penalty in a recent meeting, and French officials have vaguely threatened reprisals (“If all the U.S. authorities involved in this case do not treat BNP Paribas fairly, France will respond firmly to protect its fundamental interests,” French finance minister Michel Sapin told Les Echos.
This unique form of power the United States possesses won’t necessarily last forever. A century ago, the British pound had the dominant global role now held by the dollar. But the potential rivals for this position have problems of their own. The euro is only a couple of years removed from an existential crisis.
China is pushing  to internationalize the renminbi, and while its currency is being used more for trade within Asia, it has a long way to go to become a truly global currency. (Among other things, China would need to develop a much deeper market for bonds denominated in its currency than now exists, and start allowing the freer transfer of capital into and out of the country.)
But as a practical matter, as long as all roads to the global financial system lead through New York, and the dollar-based payments systems, Americans will have a leg up in international affairs that other countries may not like very much, but can’t really do anything about.

Mundial 2014

Agora ficam as oito melhores seleções. São as mesmas que ficaram em primeiro logar nos respectivos grupos. Quatro latino-americanas (Argentina, Brasil, Colômbia, Costa Rica)  e quatro europeias (Alemanha, Bélgica, França, Holanda). Até aqui, o melhor  ataque é da Holanda (12 marcados, 5 dos quais contra a Espanha),, as melhores defesas são da Bélgica, Colômbia, Costa Rica e França (2 sofridos  cada, excluindo as decisões com penaltis) e o melhor saldo é da Colômbia (+9). O maior volume de passes certos é da Alemanha (cerca de 2.500). A Costa Rica e a Holanda foram as que  cometeram mais faltas (81 e 76 respectivamente). O Brasil a que acumulou mais cartões amarelos (8).  James Rodriguez (Colômbia) é no momento o artilheiro da competição.

Na sexta feira jogam França-Alemanha (Maracanã) e Brasil-Colômbia (Castelão); no sábado Argentina-Bélgica (Mané Garrincha) e Holanda-Costa Rica (Fonte Nova).

Jogos que eu gostaria de ver nas  semi-finais: Brasil-França; Argentina-Costa Rica.

terça-feira, 1 de julho de 2014

sem guerra

As ultimas postagens deste blog estão muito marcadas por guerra. Fui pela rota da atualidade e também por minha serie de entrevistas na Globonews. É tempo de deixar outras visões. Radical. Assim deixo o oposto, tipo "make love not war", foto tirada da internet nem sei mais de que site. E mais tarde falaremos da Copa do Mundo de futebol.